Economic Growth
aliasghar baharloo; Syed Abdulmajid Jalaee Esfandabadi; Mohsen Zayandeh Roodi
Abstract
Considering the role of capital as one of the most important factors which can affect production, job creation, and productive activities, this study was an attempt to investigate factors which can influence investment and the way they do so. To this end, this study benefitted from a dynamic computable ...
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Considering the role of capital as one of the most important factors which can affect production, job creation, and productive activities, this study was an attempt to investigate factors which can influence investment and the way they do so. To this end, this study benefitted from a dynamic computable general equilibrium model approach to simulate the effects of technology spillovers on economic and welfare variables involved in the investment of Iranian private sector in the country's economy. Accordingly, the study focused on changes in the production index of different economic sectors of Iran and changes in the consumption and price levels in the form of four different scenarios, namely doubling foreign direct investment, improving productivity through technology spillovers by using a coefficient of 0.0062, increasing import of capital and intermediate goods by 20%, and simultaneous application of the aforementioned three scenarios by using the 2013 Social Accounting Matrix for Iran. the results revealed, application of the first scenario can lead to an increase in the level of private sector investment in all the 14 sectors of Iran's economy and cause production growth. Moreover, application of the third scenario can cause the investment level of private sector to decrease. Finally, consideration of the fourth scenario, as compared to the other three scenarios, can be accompanied by a more considerable increase in the levels of production, private sector investment, household consumption, export, import, and thus households' welfare.
mina saber; reza zeinalzadeh; Seyd Abdolmajid Jalaee Esfanadadi; mohsen Zayanderoody
Abstract
The impacts of shocks generated by macroeconomic growth scenarios (2 percent, 5 percent, and 10%) on the overall welfare index in Iran were explored in this study. The essential data were gathered from the social accounting matrix of 2011, the Central Bank, and the data-output table of 2016, and the ...
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The impacts of shocks generated by macroeconomic growth scenarios (2 percent, 5 percent, and 10%) on the overall welfare index in Iran were explored in this study. The essential data were gathered from the social accounting matrix of 2011, the Central Bank, and the data-output table of 2016, and the new recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (RDCGE) model was employed for data analysis.The findings revealed that real GDP shocks of up to 2.66 percent result in an increase in Iran's social welfare index. Because growing real GDP through boosting economic capacity raises individual income in society and creates the circumstances for household well-being to improve. Furthermore, productivity shocks of total inputs of production of up to 1.55 percent raise the social welfare index. Because improving total factor productivity has resulted in a rise in output, which has a direct influence on household consumption owing to greater income and promotes economic well-being. Furthermore, the short-term reaction of the social welfare index to oil income shocks is a maximum of 0.81 percent. Because, on the one hand, more oil revenues contribute to increased economic growth, but on the other hand, they lead to the establishment of the Dutch illness. Finally, the data revealed that among the factors analysed, shock due to real GDP growth, shock due to total productivity growth, and shock due to oil revenue increase had the greatest influence on total wellfare
